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Go Giants! Go Patriots! Sell Stocks?

What a Giants or Patriots victory means to your portfolio.

Every year commentators and guests of CNBC, Fox Business & Bloomberg talk about the “January Effect.” 

According to the website investopedia.com the January Effect is: “A general increase in stock prices during the month of January. This rally is generally attributed to an increase in buying, which follows the drop in price that typically happens in December when investors, seeking to create tax losses to offset capital gains, prompt a sell-off.” 

Personally I'm not a believer but that’s me. More importantly with the Super Bowl less than one week away, the financial “Experts” have failed to mention the ever so important “Super Bowl Market Indicator.”  

Since Super Bowl 1 (1967) who is Wall Street’s favorite team?

The Pittsburgh Steelers. Steelers Championship's have produced an average S&P 500 gain of 16.88% from Super Bowl Monday to December 31st.  Very Impressive. 

Unfortunately for investors, Giants and Patriots victories have generated not so impressive results.  In the years the Giants won the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 lost an average of 6.6% and Patriots victories produced an average loss of 3.4%. 

As a lifelong Giants fan and professional investor I find this quite troubling so I’ll leave you with one final statistic: NFC victories produced an average S&P 500 gain of 10.2% vs. the AFC's +3.1%. Go NFC!

Finally due to the wonderful workings of Senator Dodd and Congressman Frank I must say this article is for entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Enjoy the Game.

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

Swami March 30, 2012 at 08:18 PM
Wall Street sets record !!! NEW YORK—The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 66 points, or 0.5%, to 13212, as U.S. stocks notched their biggest first-quarter point gain in history. Stocks on Friday climbed higher after a pair of economic readings signaled increasing confidence in American consumers, putting the market on track to record its biggest quarterly advance in more than a decade. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303816504577313123753822852.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories thank you Mr President ;>)
Alex Tytler March 31, 2012 at 11:54 AM
The rich get much richer. Yeah!! The working class, not so much.
Swami March 31, 2012 at 12:28 PM
Are you saying that only the rich have 401K savings tied to the stock market? Try dealing with reality once in awhile, try losing the ignorance and prejudice.
Alex Tytler March 31, 2012 at 02:16 PM
I'm saying that the average person with 100 k in a retirement account is getting killed by the bad economy, deflating housing prices, inflating fuel and food costs, while somebody with say 100 million in the market is almost (but not quite) back to the 2007 highs. Rich outperforming poor, that's what I'm saying.
Alex Tytler March 31, 2012 at 02:18 PM
According to Fidelity, one of the largest 401k providers in the world, the average 401k balance is now around $71,500.
sadielee March 31, 2012 at 02:56 PM
makes no sense
Swami March 31, 2012 at 03:09 PM
that 71K was about 35K when Dumb-ya left office.
sadielee March 31, 2012 at 04:11 PM
All things equal. A 100k retirement account vs a 100 million retirement account will has returned the exact same % as long it is invested in the exact same thing. The economy has zero to do with the return in the market.
Alex Tytler April 01, 2012 at 12:18 PM
All things aren't equal. The guy with 71k in his 401k had a 500,000 house when Obama took office. Now its a 300k house with a 400k mortgage, AND everything costs more because we're printing too much money, AND the guy has had no raise if he has a job, AND his taxes have gone way up. He feels financially stressed, even though the "market" is up. The 100 million guy owned his 5 million dollar house outright which is now 3 million, but his 100 million is back and he feels secure.
Swami April 01, 2012 at 02:24 PM
Spin it any way that makes you happy, bottom line - Obama RECOVERY better than Bush recession. BEST 1st quarter in 14 years!!! NEW YORK (Reuters) -S&P 500 (MXP:^GSPC - News) closed out their best first quarter since 1998 and the Nasdaq (NAS:^COMP) had its best first-quarter performance since 1991, largely on the back of improving domestic economic data.
sadielee April 01, 2012 at 05:14 PM
eric's lost
Paul Alexander April 02, 2012 at 01:55 PM
The US Monetary base has grown 210% since January 2008. It's a Potemkin market rally, nice as it has been, engineered by a Potemkin President. You better know when to sell. Greed will crush many investors accounts...again...for the third time since 2000.
Paul Alexander April 02, 2012 at 02:17 PM
Sadilee said..."The economy has zero to do with the return in the market." What the Duece?! As crazy as that comment is there is actually some truth to it when the markets are driven up by the sheer force of money printing as they have been in the past three years or so. In REALITY though that comment is WAAAAAAAY disconnected from reality. The equities market is driven (or at least supposed to be driven) by the discounted expected future cash flows of the component companies in that "market" which ABSOLUTLEY has EVERYTHING to do with the economy those markets participate in. If Saidelee's comment is representative of mainstreet economic thinking then we ARE doomed.
sadielee April 02, 2012 at 02:34 PM
Read the comment again Paul. This time in context. I was responding to Eric's comment that the small investor was somehow receiving less results from the market then the mega investor. Which once AGAIN is not true as long as their investments are exactly the same. By the way- its easy to see through your nonsense Paul. Your not the guru. We all know it.
sadielee April 02, 2012 at 02:36 PM
almost forgot. When your done correcting yourself you can school your buddy Eric. Because he is out in never never land.
Swami April 02, 2012 at 03:28 PM
Paul, re-balanced over the weekend, thanks for the Heads-up pal.
Alex Tytler April 02, 2012 at 04:30 PM
Thats what they all said in 2007.
Swami April 02, 2012 at 06:47 PM
Sounds like someone is bitter over missing the out on the Obama stock market recovery, sorry about that.
Alex Tytler April 02, 2012 at 09:51 PM
Ha ha!
Paul Alexander April 04, 2012 at 09:02 PM
“Another week of artificial stock rampage courtesy of a transitory, one-time $2 trillion liquidity spike (Ed—The Fed’s Operation Twist) (that is now ending, if only temporarily), and another week of retail investors refusing to be suckered in (and joining corporate insiders who just sold a record amount of their own stock). In the week ended March 28, domestic equity mutual funds per ICI saw another $3.5 billion in equity redemptions: the biggest since the start of 2012, bring total 2012 YTD outflows to $19 billion, nearly 100% more than the outflow for the comparable period in 2011, which saw "only" $10 billion in outflows. Truly a good way to celebrate the highest artificial stock market high since December 2007.” Read the whole thing here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/wont-be-fooled-week-either-retail-celebrates-highest-stock-prices-2007-biggest-redemption-2012
Swami April 05, 2012 at 01:34 AM
You missed the boat, people are taking profits from the Huge Bull Run...
Paul Alexander April 05, 2012 at 10:52 PM
Oooops. "Egan-Jones Cuts US Credit Rating to 'AA,' Citing Debt" http://www.cnbc.com/id/46970602 Announced late Thursday afternoon with the market closed for a three-day weekend. Monday might not be so much fun for the markets.
Daniel Patti April 19, 2012 at 05:19 PM
Here's some past predictions from Wall Street "Experts" http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arHHMwWnKeDU
Veritas vos liberabit January 04, 2013 at 11:33 PM
How about a January 2013 update? OK ! What say you Doom and Gloom fellas? Guess Wall Street likes out Presidents leadership : ) NEW YORK (Reuters) - The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index ended at a five-year high on Friday, lifted by reports showing employers kept up a steady pace of hiring workers and the vast services sector expanded at a brisk rate. The gains on the S&P 500 pushed the index to its highest close since December 2007 and its biggest weekly gain since December 2011.
Paul Alexander January 07, 2013 at 01:30 PM
Sully, It's beyond your capacity to comprehend the difference between Nominal Rates of Return, Real Rates of Return and Risk Adjusted Returns. Your're the perfect self-investing stooge.
Veritas vos liberabit January 21, 2013 at 03:41 PM
Go Ravens, Go 49ers !!!!!!!!!!! what do you experts think? ps: Adam Shell, USA TODAY10:32a.m. EST January 21, 2013 President Obama turned out to be spot on when he told Americans stocks were priced to buy in March 2009. (Photo: Richard Drew, AP) STORY HIGHLIGHTS S&P 500 gains more in Obama's first term than his last four predecessors President's tenure coincided with end of bear market and Great Recession, creating fuel for rebound History shows that presidential second terms are not as bullish for stocks NEW YORK — Despite critics that brand him as anti-business and anti-Wall Street, President Obama's first term in the White House has been bullish for stocks. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has risen 85% since Obama was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2009, says S&P Capital IQ. That stellar return tops first-term gains of Obama's past four predecessors: George. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan. Using the Dow Jones industrial average, Obama ranks third in first-term stock performance of all presidents; Franklin D. Roosevelt is No. 1, says Bespoke Investment Group.
Veritas vos liberabit February 01, 2013 at 04:06 PM
Anyone still have The Bears? MARKET SNAPSHOT Archives | Email alerts Feb. 1, 2013, 10:38 a.m. EST Dow passes 14,000 after jobs report, overseas data Dow industrials breach 14,000 for first time since October 2007 Stories You Might Like January gains only the beginning, says QAS' Tower Value Investor Tom Russo's top stock picks for 2013 Retirees and stocks: Sell now or hold on? 2 Comments Share NEW Portfolio Relevance LEARN MORE By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks on Friday started a new month with strong gains, pushing the Dow industrials above 14,000 for the first time since October 2007, after the January jobs report bolstered thinking that the lackluster recovery remains on track. “We’re back to a level we haven’t been at since 2007, the Dow hitting 14,000 is just like the S&P 500 hitting 1,500 again,” said Darrell Cronk, regional chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Private Bank.
Daniel Young March 28, 2013 at 11:21 PM
4:40p.m. EDT March 28, 2013 The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index finally caught up with other major stock indexes, setting a new closing high on the final trading day of the first quarter. U.S. financial markets are closed for Good Friday. The broad measure of the U.S. stock market passed its previous closing high of 1,565.15 early Thursday to become the latest brand-name U.S. stock index to crack a record since the bull market began in March 2009. Preliminary figures showed the S&P finished at 1,569.19, up 6.34 points or 0.41%. The Dow Jones industrial average also set a new closing high of 14,578.54, up 52.38 or 0.36%; the Nasdaq composite index ended at 3,267.52, up 11.00 or 0.34%. The benchmark S&P index, widely owned by investors via index mutual funds, broke through its previous closing high set Oct, 9, 2007. The new mark erases all of the nearly 57% the index lost during the 2007-2009 bear market.
Daniel Young March 29, 2013 at 12:53 AM
Also, what betting on the Bear cost you: An estimated $227 billion has fled stock mutual funds since March 2009, when the bull market began, according to the Investment Company Institute. What those investors lost: A $10,000 investment in the average stock mutual fund in March 2009 would now be worth $25,547, according to Lipper. The same amount in ultrasafe Treasury bills: $10,040.
Mr X April 29, 2013 at 07:06 PM
what's going on here? NEW YORK -- The Standard & Poor's 500 index topped its all-time closing high hit less than three weeks ago Monday. Investors are in a buying mood after a better-than-expected start to the first-quarter earnings season and fresh signs that the U.S. housing recovery remains intact. The benchmark stock index topped its April 11 closing high of 1593.37 in afternoon trading, erasing a brief downturn that had shaved roughly 3% off the large-company stock index. Stocks prices rose Monday after the government reported that personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in March and the National Association of Realtors said pending contracts to buy homes last month were at their highest level in three years. The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 were up 0.9% or more in afternoon trading. The S&P 500 index is heading toward breaking through its record intraday high of 1,597.35 hit on April 11. And the tech-laden Nasdaq composite index was up 1.1% as investors awaited earnings from Facebook.

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